Second Guessing the Iowa CaucusesComplications Ensue
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Tuesday, January 03, 2012

[POLITICS] The following has nothing to do with story telling or screenwriting, and I'm hardly a political expert. But it's my blog, and this is America. (Or Canada. Or both.)

I'm struggling with how defective the Republican "invisible primary" has been so far. Iowa looks like it will split three ways. Romney, who almost no one believes has the principals he currently espouses. Ron Paul, a libertarian who really could go found his own party, so far are his views from the Republican and Democratic mainstream. And Rick Santorum, a movement conservative with no organization and no charisma that I can detect. Losers: a Texas governor who thinks that Canadian tar sands are good because they're not "foreign oil"; a far-right-wing congresswoman; and a smart, sensible, rather conservative former governor whom the Obama people suckered into being their ambassador to China and who sabotaged his own campaign by claiming to be moderate.

Really? This is the best the Republican party can field?

My feeling is Romney wins the nomination. Who can stop him? Perry, who had the deep pockets, is done for. (Weirdly, he's spent only about $3mil of the $17 mil he's raised. That's a lot of barbecue when he goes home.) Ron Paul isn't really a Republican. Santorum has no money and no organization. He could win South Carolina, but how is he going to take big states like Florida and Michigan?

Enthusiasm seems to be down. Turnout in the Iowa Caucuses is seriously down from 2008.

One big question is: will anyone run a third candidate from the right? That would kill Romney's chances, but the movement conservatives may not care. They may figure they have once again been snookered by Wall Street Republicans. Of course Trump will make noises about it, Sarah Palin-style, but I doubt he'll run, 'cause running is work.

My guess is people make noises and there's a lot of talk, but no one runs against Romney from the right.

So the other big question is: who will be more motivated to get out the vote? Democrats, who feel a bit burned that Obama did not deliver enough HOPE and CHANGE; or Republicans, who may not believe that Romney will really deliver on the Tea Party Revolution.

In an election like this, there's no advantage to going positive. It is going to be an ugly, ugly election. Look forward to a mudfest.



I've been amazed for a while how poor the Republican field is. Three former front runners (Cain, Perry and Bachman) made George Bush look innately qualified.

I joked that Sarah Palin probably didn't enter the race because with this field, she wouldn't stick out at all. I mean, when you've already got multiple candidates who are as loopy and inept as Palin, what's the point of throwing your hat into the ring?

By Blogger Tim W., at 1:30 PM  

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