Christopher Coulter asks about this article about a computer program that supposedly predicts box office. Unfortunately, one of the variables used in predicting box office is how many theaters the movie's opening in. Typically, if a movie's a disaster, it doesn't open in as many theaters as a movie that's at least okay. The studios and exhibitors dump it. Another variable is strength of cast. You don't get a strong cast, on average if the script is dreadful. So the program is meaningless, especially since it's only vaguely right three quarters of the time. If I could tell you within $100 million dollars how well a movie was going to do, but only 75% percent of the time, would you consider me a marketing whiz?
What's much more meaningful is that they can by and large tell by Sunday how well a movie's going to do box office, basically by looking at how word of mouth spreads from Friday to Saturday.
Soon, as the article in the NY Times that Denis pointed me to indicates, we will know within hours whether a film is a blockbuster or not via the DVD sales tracking.
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